Stochastic generator of earthquakes for France mainland

Corentin Gouache and Pierre Tinard and Francois Bonneau. ( 2021 )
in: 2021 RING Meeting, ASGA

Abstract

France mainland is characterized by low-to-moderate seismic activity, yet it is known that major earthquakes could strike this territory (e.g. Liguria in 1887 or Basel in 1356). Assessing French seismic hazard is thus necessary to support building codes and lead prevention actions towards population. The Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment (PSHA) is the classical approach to estimate seismic hazard. One way to apply PSHA is to generate synthetic earthquakes. This allows to propagate information from past seismicity using various seismic scenarios. In this paper, we present an implementation of stochastic generator of earthquakes and discuss its relevance to mimic the seismicity of low-to-moderate seismic areas. The proposed stochastic generator produces independent events (main shocks) and their correlated seismicity (only aftershocks). Main shocks are simulated first in time and magnitude considering all available data in the area and then localized in space thanks to a probability map and a regionalization. Aftershocks are simulated around main shocks by considering seismic moment ratio and distribution of aftershock's proportion.\\The generator is tested with France mainland data.

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BibTeX Reference

@INPROCEEDINGS{GOUACHE_RM2021,
    author = { Gouache, Corentin and Tinard, Pierre and Bonneau, Francois },
     title = { Stochastic generator of earthquakes for France mainland },
 booktitle = { 2021 RING Meeting },
      year = { 2021 },
 publisher = { ASGA },
  abstract = { France mainland is characterized by low-to-moderate seismic activity, yet it is known that major earthquakes could strike this territory (e.g. Liguria in 1887 or Basel in 1356). Assessing French seismic hazard is thus necessary to support building codes and lead prevention actions towards population. The Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment (PSHA) is the classical approach to estimate seismic hazard. One way to apply PSHA is to generate synthetic earthquakes. This allows to propagate information from past seismicity using various seismic scenarios. In this paper, we present an implementation of stochastic generator of earthquakes and discuss its relevance to mimic the seismicity of low-to-moderate seismic areas. The proposed stochastic generator produces independent events (main shocks) and their correlated seismicity (only aftershocks). Main shocks are simulated first in time and magnitude considering all available data in the area and then localized in space thanks to a probability map and a regionalization. Aftershocks are simulated around main shocks by considering seismic moment ratio and distribution of aftershock's proportion.\\The generator is tested with France mainland data. }
}